Congratulations to Fellow UMass Economist(s)

Thomas Herndon is getting a lot of attention for his critical replication paper, that attacks the data / methods of a paper by Harvard's Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. 

 http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/04/grad-student-who-shook-global-austerity-movement.html

Those of us (and this includes most of my readers I imagine) who find policy implications based on econometric analysis in single papers are not terribly surprised to find errors in papers such as Reinhart and Rogoff's.  That said, it is rare that the mainstream is forced to listen to our critiques. That coupled with the fact that Thomas' work has significant implications for austerity programs and governments the world over, this is a major achievement!
Well done and congrats Tom!

More to Follow....Export lead growth? garbage?

Well no....
But without preempting an upcoming paper...
We are starting to see some evidence that the path to development in Africa is to sell to even less developed countries.  Find your technological comparative advantage and use the proceeds to strengthen said advantage.  I only mention this now to have it on record that in some degree we were here first!  (not in "absolute" terms of course but....still there is something there.
Go regression analysis!
Earth shattering policy implications to follow in future weeks....
Really I am just curious what you all, my loyal readers think of the theories of skipping steps on the development ladder by selling to "more developed" countries.  It makes sense right? 
Sense and economics of course very rarely have anything to do with each other.

Some Loosely Applied Logic to Taxation and Unemployment

Earlier today I can across an interesting counter factual argument.

I am slipping completely into the realm of modern epistemology for this post.

There is a clear correlation between having yellow nicotine stained fingers and getting lung cancer.  The counter factual would be a correlation between having clean appearing hands and not getting lung cancer.  This is fairly silly, as any classy smoker washes their hands regularly and thoroughly.

Many politically conservative Americans who have a public forum claim correlation between businesses paying taxes and unemployment.  Lower taxes means more money to hire workers right?
I propose that the counter factual argument works the same in this case. There is no correlation between lowering taxes to businesses and a decrease in unemployment in the current climate of financial paralysis.

Prove me wrong econometricians, oh that's right, you can't prove anything, only appeal to a relative standard of "truth".